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Rating Teams and Predicting Football Matches Using the EI Index
My past couple of articles have focused on Elo ratings and how they can be applied to football teams to rank them against each other and to estimate win probabilities. Problems with Elo Ratings On the...
View ArticleEI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
For a bit of fun, here is a trial run at predicting this weekend’s EPL matches using my EI ratings. I haven’t compared these with anyone else’s odds yet but they generally look about what I would have...
View ArticleHow Did the EI Predictions Do?
The EI Last week was a big test for my new EI index – it had finally reached the point where I was confident it was working well enough to post its predictions in public. For those people who haven’t...
View ArticleEI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
Since last week’s predictions turned out to be so popular I thought I would continue testing the EI index in public so here are this week’s predictions. Fingers crossed they turn out well again! Table...
View ArticleEI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
Here we go again! Last week was another success for the EI, with seven out of the ten predicted favourites winning their matches. It is still a bit early to be drawing too many conclusions but so far...
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How Much Risk Should a Football Manager Take?
How much risk should a football manager take if their team is the underdog in a match? Should they take on the opposing team to try and win the game or sit back and just try not to lose? The decision...
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Is Brendan Rogers Improving Liverpool?
As well as using my EI Index to predict future matches, it can also be used to look back at how team’s performances have changed over time. An interesting example is Liverpool, who sacked Kenny...
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How Accurate Are The EI Football Predictions?
Unfortunately time caught up with me last week and I was unable to post any predictions from my Eastwood Index. However, since then I have been busy validating the results to see how accurate the...
View ArticleEI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
After last week’s international matches, domestic football is finally back so here are this weekend’s match predictions using my EI predictive model. Let’s see if it can keep up its good form and...
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EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
A couple of weeks back I demonstrated how the EI is more accurate than the bookies based on rank probability scores but a few people have asked if I can do something a bit simpler so Figure 1 shows how...
View ArticleEI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
Here we go with this week’s predictions from the Eastwood Index (EI)! The EI doesn’t hold out much chance for Wigan or West Ham getting three points off the two Manchester clubs this week, with the...
View ArticleEI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
It’s been a busy day but I’ve finally got the probabilities for this weekend’s matches completed. There are some pretty close games, with QPR Vs Stoke, Tottenham Vs Man City and Liverpool Vs Chelsea...
View ArticleEI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
It’s Friday again so here are this weekend’s match probabilities for the English Premier League. I was a little surprised to see Manchester United come out as favourites against Arsenal, even they they...
View ArticleEI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
Here are the latest match probabilities for the English Premier League calculated using the Eastwood Index (EI). Please note that I have not included next week’s mid-week matches yet as the odds for...
View ArticleThe Eastwood Index, MLS and Parity
I showed in my last post how Major League Soccer (MLS) is a much more closely matched league than the English Premier League (EPL), with the wage cap and draft system increasing the parity between...
View ArticleEI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
Here are the latest match probabilities for the English Premier League calculated using the Eastwood Index (EI). Somewhat surprisingly, Liverpool are only just favorites to beat Fulham with the odds so...
View ArticleEI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
We have finally reached the end of the season so for the last time in 2012-2013 here are the Eastwood Index’s (EI) probabilities for the English Premier League. Once the season is over and done with...
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Did The Eastwood Index Beat The Bookmakers?
It’s the end of the season so it’s time to review how the Eastwood Index performed over the year and how it compared with the bookmakers. Ranked Probability Scores One of the most important aspects to...
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Betting With The Eastwood Index And Kelly Criterion
I demonstrated in my last post that the odds calculated using the Eastwood Index were slightly more accurate than the bookmakers over the course of the football season. My next goal is to work out the...
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